April 11, 2020
April 11, 2020

We count down to day 117 of the outbreak, at which point we expect the world’s aggregate available healthcare resources to receive patients (due to nCOV-SARS 2 / COVID19 burden) will begin to become negative.

Assuming major governments do not meanwhile succeed in elongating their inflection curves (through complete lockdowns of airspace and freedom of vectoral movement, coupled with new facilities and personnel to return to R0>1, a lapse in ability to maintain public health by Q2’20 may thereafter lead to failures to uphold public safety, resulting in endemic instability of international security. In the scenario that this insecurity is further undermined by a second concurrent adverse event (climatic, financial, biological, belligerence, geological, etc.), it would beget tectonic shifts in social demographics, local and foreign policies, and even possibly long-established political and socioeconomic orders.